It is not only on the high street where January sales figures look
like suffering. Football has long seemed detached from the real world
but it is a measure of the impact of the global downturn that next
month's transfer window is as eagerly anticipated among agents as a
phone call from Lord Stevens' Quest team. Clubs are tightening their
belts although, unlike the wider economy, there is a potential
quick-fix to kick-start football's month of madness.
While agents
predict a rise in short-term loans and swap deals as clubs struggle to
borrow money from banks, there is also the realisation that, with their
billionaire benefactors and ambitions of grandeur, one Manchester City
signing could be all that is required to swing the transfer window wide
open. It is a theory that crops up again and again in conversations
with those involved at all levels of the game as the football world
holds its breath in anticipation of City's spending spree.
"I
really do not know what Manchester City might do," said Aston Villa's
manager, Martin O'Neill. "I have no inside information, so I'm only
speculating, but if they are talking about being able to go for really
top-quality players, getting them in during January might mean they
have to pay an inordinate amount of money. And where does that leave
the rest of us? It could have a knock on. If I didn't think that, then
I would probably think January would be relatively quiet. But
Manchester City could explode the market."
Mark Hughes's interest
in signing Lassana Diarra from Portsmouth and Roque Santa Cruz from
Blackburn Rovers, for a combined total of around £35m, is an example of
how an ailing market could receive a shot in the arm. Without that
level of investment there is a general consensus that next month will
see much more wheeling and dealing rather than usual straight-cash
deals, with player exchanges expected to rise as clubs seek ways to
circumvent a lack of funding.
"The bigger picture is that clubs
borrow money and if clubs can't get money from the banks they can't
fund transactions," said Andy Evans, whose clients at World in Motion
include Robert Green and Jimmy Bullard. "But I don't think the number
of players moving will change much next month. Instead, I think the
fees will come down and so will the salaries and if, for example, Villa
want a Tottenham player they might decide to do a swap."
Both
Villa and Tottenham are expected to be busy in January, with O'Neill
and Harry Redknapp eager to recruit a striker as well as strengthen
other departments. Elsewhere, Manchester United and Chelsea have stated
there will be no new signings and Arsène Wenger is no fan of the
January sales. Finances are tight at Everton and Portsmouth's forays
into the market could depend on whether Manchester City's interest in
Diarra crystallises.
That still leaves more than half of the Premier League,
with Nicky Hammond, Reading's director of football, pointing out that
it could be significant that many of those clubs are unsure of their
top-flight status. "If you look at the table, because it's so close,
any team in the bottom half is vulnerable," said Hammond. "Therefore a
manager, a chairman or a board might decide it's better to spend £5m to
£6m now if it protects a minimum of £50m next year."
Hammond,
nonetheless, admits that his discussions with other clubs suggest
"there will be limited spending in January and that player exchanges
with cash adjustments will be something that people will be looking at
more closely than they've done before." Those deals are often the most
complicated, however, with transfers often breaking down because one of
the players feels that he is being restricted in his choice of club and
pushed into a move.
That Premier League clubs are set to face
these challenges next month will engender little sympathy among most
football fans. The game at the top level has been awash with money for
so long, with even agents acknowledging the need for a sense of
perspective. "It wouldn't hurt for a little bit of prudence," said
Colin Gordon, whose Key Sports agency represents Theo Walcott and David
James. "A bit of common sense would help bring things back in line."
Not
that he is predicting that will necessarily be the case. "The degree of
trading looks like it will be a little bit down but that could be
totally distorted by someone who has got a good backer," added Gordon.
"People might be thinking 'we won't spend' but if, all of a sudden,
someone offers ridiculous money for one of their players, it will
inflate the market. Two January's ago it was West Ham that drove the
market stupid. This time it could be Manchester City."
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